Ethylene Market 2025: Trade Expansion and Sustainable Growth

The global market of ethylene is observing record growth with interesting capacity expansion, increasing demand in key industries, and new sustainable production technologies. Through all the economic fluctuations globally, the market is seeing substantial resilience as more investments are made by the industries to realize long-term growth.

• Shell-CNOOC petrochemical complex South China Huizhou capacity expansion is one of the key highlights in 2025. This collaboration is introducing a third new ethylene cracker unit, increasing annual capacity by 1.6 million tons. In addition to securing China's monopoly of the global ethylene chain, it also serves the nation's successful plastics, packaging, and synthetic fibre markets as required by diversified downstream industries.

Through this increase in domestic production, China disperses its domination in serving domestic markets and becomes competitive globally. Apart from expanding capacity, Chinese manufacturers are also actively boosting U.S. ethane imports, a major raw material used to manufacture ethylene.

• Ethane imports are forecast to rise to 8.2 million tons by 2025. This is an upgrade that allows manufacturers to cut costs of production and become more competitive globally.

The growing trend of commerce reflects heightened cooperation between the U.S. and China, both in the petrochemical sector as part of the overall case of global cooperation in the importation of raw materials. Pressure towards clean forms of energy use is on the rise in India. The government has expanded the timeline for around 20% ethanol mixing in petrol to 2025 from 2030. The initiative exhibits the importance of India in reduction the usage of fossil fuels and increasing the utilization of renewable energy. The policy will also ensure greater energy security, reduced emission of greenhouse gases, and rural economy growth through demand push for ethanol.

• According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), in May 2024, ethane production was recorded 3.0 million bpd. Further, it is projected to average 2.9 million bpd in 2025 and 3.1 million bpd in 2026 and to continue to provide strong global feedstock supply

Southeast Asia is also seeing very strong market recovery for the ethylene market. The prices in the region are at a seven-month peak because of the tight supply and vigorous demand from the automotive, construction, and packaging sectors. The price appreciation is indicative of positive market fundamentals and that Southeast Asia will remain a driver of growth for ethylene demand.

• Indonesia's Lotte Chemical Indonesia New Ethylene (LINE) project, which is Southeast Asia's largest petrochemical investment, will be commissioned at the fourth quarter of 2025 following a minor delay. The 1 million tons per year capacity facility will be a major contributor to addressing Indonesia's domestic ethylene requirement, lowering the import dependency, as well as driving industrial development schemes in the country.

By and large, the global market for ethylene is demonstrated by planned capacity growth, increased international trade cooperation, and additional focus on cleaner production technologies. All these are encouraging in the way that they bode well for a better future with the industry coordinating with economic forces and pressure for cleaner production technologies.